Low Turnout Could Sink Measure EE

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 Low Turnout Could Sink Measure EE

Key indicators suggest success is possible in a higher turnout scenario

UPDATE: Measure EE failed, pretty remarkably. Our research revealed something that does not normally happen in polling, but when it does, we do more discovery work to find out why. Watch Adam Probolsky explain:

Probolsky Research conducted a poll for public interest from May 16-17, among likely voters, about the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) and Measure EE on the June 4 Special Election ballot.

Measure EE aims to increase taxes by several thousand dollars on most property owners over a twelve-year period to fund local schools. Successful passage requires a two-thirds vote. “There is plenty of time for both sides to target their voters and encourage them to turnout. However, there are few undecided voters left to influence,” explained Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research, an independent, non-partisan polling firm based in California.

The poll tested the exact ballot language voters will see on their vote-by-mail ballot or in the polling booth. Our findings indicate a competitive campaign if turnout is relatively high for a Special Election in Los Angeles. The more likely scenario of a low turnout (about 8%) means the measure will likely fail to reach the 2/3 threshold needed.

Question: Measure EE is on the June 4th Special Election ballot in the Los Angeles Unified School District. Measure EE reads: “QUALITY TEACHER, CLASS SIZE REDUCTION, AND LOCAL SCHOOL SAFETY MEASURE. To retain/attract quality teachers, reduce class sizes, provide counseling/nursing/library services, arts, music, science, math, preschool, vocational/career education, safe/well-maintained schools, adequate instructional materials/supplies, support disadvantaged/homeless students, shall Los Angeles Unified School District levy $0.16 per square foot of building improvements annually, exempting seniors/certain disability recipients providing approximately $500,000,000 annually for 12 years, requiring annual audits, oversight, and funding local schools?” If an election were held today, would you vote yes, in favor of Measure EE, or vote no, against Measure EE?

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“If Measure EE fails, it will be in part because voters, regardless of party, do not think that students receive a high-quality education in LAUSD schools,” said Probolsky. “The measure would raise some $6 billion, but it does not appear that voters believe these funds will be enough to make LA schools that much better.”

Voters don’t think students in LAUSD schools get a high-quality education

Question: Do you think students in Los Angeles Unified School District schools get a high-quality education?

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As researchers we love presenting data in new and innovative ways, so we created the Public Listening Tool™ — a qualitative research technology. It provides a glimpse into the rationale for why voters within LAUSD are voting yes or no on Measure EE, in their own voice. The comments are transcribed and an overlay of political party and location are included to offer context.

“You will probably be surprised by what some Democratic voters say about why they oppose Measure EE,” said Probolsky. “Republican opposition is pretty stereotypical.”

Supporters of Measure EE are featured first, followed by those who oppose. You can listen and watch here:

Methodology:
From Thursday, May 16, 2019 to Friday, May 17, 2019, Probolsky Research conducted a multi-mode live-interviewer telephone and online survey among likely voters in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) June 2019 election.

A total of 400 voters (200 by telephone and 200 online) were surveyed. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-5%, with a confidence level of 95%. Interviews were conducted with respondents on both landline and mobile phones (31.5% completed the survey on mobile phones) and were offered in English and Spanish (11.5% completed the survey in Spanish) languages. For the online survey phase, we invited participation via email. Security measures precluded individuals from completing the survey more than once and allowed only the designated voter to complete the survey. Online respondents were able to use their computer, tablet or smart phone to participate.

Our sample was developed from the voter database maintained by the Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters. Probolsky Research applies a stratified random sampling methodology to ensure that the demographic proportions of survey respondents match the composition of our likely voter universe.

Probolsky Research is an independent, non-partisan market and opinion research company with corporate, election, government, non-profit and other special interest clients.

This research was conducted for public interest — we have no client in this campaign.

PR NEWS: What’s in Your Digital Go-Bag? Five Essentials for Communicators

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Published in PR News 5/1/19

What’s in Your Digital Go-Bag? Five Essentials for Communicators

By Adam Probolsky

Technology will fail us all at some point. And if you are unprepared, it could exacerbate a situation and become a crisis.

Even a behemoth like Facebook goes down, as we saw last month. During an earlier worldwide outage of Facebook, Basecamp, the project- and team-management website and app, also went down. In such cases you’ll miss pics of the neighbor’s lunch. That’s manageable. But many businesses lost precious opportunities. For example, think of the advertising exposure lost when publishers couldn’t link to Facebook videos clients sponsored in their emails. The thousands of companies that rely on Basecamp lost access to every detail of their projects and the ability to communicate with teams.

This got me thinking: Am I ready for an extended outage of critical business systems? The answer was no.

Admittedly I’m a bit of a prepper in the zombie apocalypse sense. So, the axe and bottled water are stored safely with the family bug-out bag. But if the crisis is a major technology failure and not a global virus that takes control of unsuspecting bodies, I think most of us are unprepared.

So, I developed a digital go-bag. You might think I went overboard. Perhaps you want to swap out some geographic or industry-specific items for your go-bag. Fine. Consider the ideas below starting suggestions:

Back-up chargers for all your devices

Think about being without power for a couple of hours, let alone days. Forget about your computer, iPad and phone. A robust back-up power source that can power a handful of devices for a day costs about $100. Be sure to get one that has all the ports you need. For instance,  Mac users will want a USB-C. Some even have a regular 120v plug.

Sat phone

The Weather Channel reporter standing in the middle of a hurricane is talking on a satellite phone. They are indispensable when cell service is interrupted because of weather or power outage. They’re also handy when there’s a coup on the island nation where you are vacationing and the military shuts all comms. Don’t forget to pre-program your key contacts for ease of use. Satellite phones are pricey. The Iridium Extreme 9575, has a rugged “military grade” design, costs $1,300, plus $50/month for service fees. And that’s before the cost of making or receiving calls.

Thumb drive with key files

Assuming the crisis you are facing does not include a foreign power detonating an EMP that destroys electronics for miles in every direction, you will have access to your computer. But the Internet might be down, so carry a thumb drive, or several that hold key files, like your crisis plan and templates for ever document you might need to produce. Also, stripped-down contact databases in Excel spreadsheets, old-school style. You may not be able to broadcast it to the world or forward to HQ, but at least you can write your media statement and update reports.

Printed contact lists and key documents

Many communicators operate in paperless offices. Printing things may no longer be in our nature. Still, having a contact list of the most critical people you need to be in touch with is important. Don’t forget to include fax numbers. Even if the Internet is spotty, the Panasonic fax machine at FedEx Office will still work. Also, put together a file with the most important pages you might need, like corporate governance documents, powers of attorney, holding statements and background material, such as org charts and timelines.

Back-up hard drive

Thumb drives can hold just about everything you need. But in case of an extended period without Internet connectivity, have a back-up of all your files. Some organizations have policies that restrict this kind of file downloading. If so, get special permission. And be sure to use encryption.

Adam Probolsky is president of Probolsky Research