Archive for year: 2022
Local Government Insights Podcast Features Adam Probolsky
Firm president, Adam Probolsky joined the Local Government Insights podcast, episode 27, to talk about how government uses public opinion research in the process of making public policy.
Listen here:
Bass Leads in Race for Los Angeles Mayor
UPDATE: The Los Angeles Times wrote about our poll. Read the coverage here: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-10-02/september-mayoral-poll
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“Rick Caruso has a sizable lead of more than 10% among Latino voters and an even bigger lead among Spanish speakers,” said Adam Probolsky, pollster and data scientist.
“Caruso has a massive lead among Republican voters and outperforms Bass among No Party Preference (independent) voters. But Democratic voters will represent over 65% of turnout in November. And Democrats are supporting Bass.”
Adam Probolsky explained, “Bass or Caruso can still win this race. But Bass’ lead among white voters, the largest constituency, means she will be hard to beat.”
Poll Methodology
From September 19 – 25, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) poll among 500 City of Los Angeles likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-4.5%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (87%), Spanish (12%) or Korean (1%).
This poll was sponsored by Klink Campaigns and the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.
Newsweek Covers Probolsky Research Polling
What Polls Say About Newsom vs. DeSantis in Hypothetical 2024 Matchup
BY FATMA KHALED ON 9/17/22 AT 4:32 PM EDT
https://www.newsweek.com/what-polls-say-about-newsom-vs-desantis-hypothetical-2024-matchup-1743936
Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be more popular among independent and Latino voters than Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom if they ever decide to run in the 2024 presidential election, according to recent polls.
Speculation about DeSantis’ and Newsom’s 2024 presidential ambitions has grown in recent months. On Friday, Newsom took aim at DeSantis and challenged the GOP governor to a debate.
“Hey@GovRonDeSantis, clearly you’re struggling, distracted, and busy playing politics with people’s lives. Since you have only one overriding need — attention –let’s take this up & debate. I’ll bring my hair gel. You bring your hairspray. Name the time before Election Day.@CNN,” the California governor wrote on Twitter, further fueling speculation regarding his 2024 ambitions.
In a hypothetical matchup, DeSantis beats Newsom in California where 85 percent of the state’s Republican voters would choose the Florida governor, who is also taking the lead among independents, Latinos and voters who are between 40 to 49 years old, according to a poll released by Probolsky Research on August 19 that surveyed 900 likely California voters with a margin of error of 3.3 percent.
“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” said Adam Probolsky, the Probolsky Research president. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”
Though DeSantis and Newsom haven’t announced plans to run in 2024, they both appear to be positioning themselves for potentially taking part in the race. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have also hinted that they will run again in 2024.
The Probolsky Research poll also showed that DeSantis is also popular among independent voters, denying Newsom majority support among that group. “To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024,″ Probolsky added. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”
In a poll by Yahoo News that was conducted between June 24 and June 27, 1,630 respondents were asked whether they would vote for Newsom or DeSantis if the 2024 elections were held today.
A total of 39 percent of respondents said they would vote for Newsom, compared to 36 percent who would choose DeSantis. Still, the Florida governor is more popular among independent voters as 38 percent of them said they would vote for him in a hypothetical presidential race as opposed to 33 percent of independent voters who would vote for Newsom.
Favorability among state residents is also something accounted for when comparing the Republican and the Democratic governors’ chances in a hypothetical matchup.
Last month, a poll by the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed that 54 percent of Florida voters approve of DeSantis’ performance as governor, with 88 percent of Republicans and 52 percent of NPAs (No Party Affiliation) approving of his job. Additionally, 65 percent of Hispanic voters approve of his performance compared to 32 percent who disapprove. The poll was conducted among 608 respondents statewide with a margin error of 4 percent.
Meanwhile, a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released on August 23 showed that 53 percent of California voters approve of Newsom’s performance as governor, compared to 42 percent who disapprove. This is a slight improvement compared to the last poll released in February, asking voters about his job performance. The poll was conducted among 9,254 California registered voters with a sampling error of around 2 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to DeSantis’ office for comment.
Marin Voice: Newsom should step in before CPUC halts beneficial rooftop solar progress (Probolsky Research poll cited)
A 2022 poll of 900 voters by Probolsky Research of Newport Beach found that 64% opposed the CPUC proposal while 20% were in favor.
“It appears that California regulators are out of touch with the voters on this issue,” Adam Probolsky said in the report. “Voters across the spectrum – Democrats, no-party preference and Republicans oppose these incentive cuts. In fact, in every way of looking at the data, by age, gender, preferred language and geography, voters align in their opposition to cutting solar incentives.”
DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters
Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom wins over most California voters, but in a head-to-head match-up for president against Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor shows surprising strength among independents, Latinos and voters 40-49.[I]
A large majority (85%) of California Republican voters prefer DeSantis who also garners eleven percent of Democrats. Newsom gets 83% of Democratic voters and ten percent of GOP voters. But DeSantis bests Newsom in his own state among voters 40-49. DeSantis also earns strong support from Latino voters among whom the governors are tied. DeSantis’ sizable support among No Party Preference (independent) voters denies Newsom a majority among that group.
“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” explains Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”
“To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024″, said Probolsky. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”
Poll Methodology
From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.
[i] If the election for president were held today, for which candidate would you vote?
Very Few Want Biden to Run Again
A sizable majority of California voters, across nearly every demographic, do not think President Biden should run for re-election.[i]
Democratic voters are the only group that does not achieve a majority in thinking the President should not seek re-election. They do, however, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, say he shouldn’t – 26% of them are unsure.
“The results among No Party Preference (independent) voters should be a clear indicator to President Biden’s political team that he is in jeopardy of being a one-term president,” shares Probolsky Research President Adam Probolsky. “Even members of the President’s party are conflicted as to whether he should seek re-election, more than a quarter are unsure and more Democratic voters say he should step aside than say he should run.”
“With numbers like these, and without a clear Democratic alternative to President Biden, the Republican hopefuls will get more and more attention as 2024 nears, explains Probolsky.” “The question is not whether President Biden will step aside and let the Democrats battle for the nomination but will he do it in time for them to be competitive.”
Poll Methodology
From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode live interviewer telephone and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.
[i] Do you think President Joe Biden should run for re-election?
Proposition 1: Constitutional Amendment on Abortion Rights Winning with Super-Majority Support in CA
This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.
We subscribe to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
