Feinstein Leads de León in the CA U.S. Senate Race (General Election match-up)

There is little doubt that incumbent U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein and CA State Senator Kevin de León will advance to the November General Election as the top two vote getters. With that in mind, we chose to look ahead to see how the race is shaping up so far.

In order to get the widest possible view of the race, we polled among all California voters and Feinstein leads across nearly all voting propensity breaks. de León takes a small lead among the small group of newer voters.

The biggest discovery from the poll is that Republicans, who generally know and dislike Feinstein, give de León their vote by a slim margin, in the absence of a Republican on the ballot.

Probolsky Research has no client in the 2018 CA U.S. Senate race and these questions were not paid for or sponsored by any third party. We are releasing this data for public-interest purposes only.

The presentation can be found here:

The full report with all cross tabulated results can be found here:

Adam Probolsky Talks About Building a Poll for Actionable Results

Earlier this week Adam Probolsky spoke with Shane Greer, co-publisher at Campaigns and Elections, on building a poll that yields actionable results. You can watch it here:

How to Build a Poll that Gives You Actionable Results

How to build a poll that gives you actionable results. Adam Probolsky of Probolsky Research talks with C&E's Shane Greer

Posted by Campaigns & Elections on Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Florida Voters Talk About Offshore Drilling

You can watch this Public Listening Tool™ developed by Probolsky Research that shows how Floridians talk about the proposal to ban off shore drilling through a state constitutional amendment.

As you listen and watch, you will see the party affiliation and location of each voter in addition to their comments displayed on the screen.

Southern California Water Utilities Association Presentation

Adam Probolsky spoke to the Southern California Water Utilities Association today. The topic: the role of public opinion research in communicating with customers and the public. He shared the results of our most recent national polling on how to best connect with the public.

This includes determining the best:

  • Message
  • Messenger
  • Medium

Here’e some video from the presentation:

Adam also did his best to assuage the audience of the decades-long notion that engineers are bad communicators. He encouraged water leaders to have their agencies weigh in to relevant social media conversations.

You can view the presentation here.

3 Ways to Use Opinion Research During Crisis Management Situations

Originally published in Communications World Magazine

Even for the most well-prepared organization, things can blow up once in a while. Just ask Samsung.

Within the past year or so, exploding mobile phones, passengers being dragged down the aisle and production companies purging executives and big-screen stars have all faced media scrutiny and angry public opinion. These moments of crisis have threatened brand reputations and customer loyalty.

Such crises undoubtedly merit an immediate call to the PR and legal departments, but the experienced know that the real key to surviving them involves employing the help of a pollster as well. Because when brand reputation and customer loyalty are at stake, or when facing government intervention or legal action, there is no substitute for statistically valid research to help guide messaging and targeting.

Based on our experience with crises, we have developed a recommended action plan for businesses in the immediate aftermath of a disaster. There are four crucial steps:

  1. Gather immediate feedback from those affected through social listening tools.
  2. Conduct qualitative and quantitative research to gauge broader impact and strategize a management approach.
  3. Track reactions throughout the crisis to assess public response and uncover new information.
  4. Follow with post-crisis research to repair brand image and prepare for the future.

If used correctly, the action plan can help you crystallize your strategy and approach to navigating these turbulent conditions. Here are some specific examples of how polling and other opinion research has been used to guide the response to crises.

Identifying the right messengers

During crisis management, deciding who should respond is often just as important as the response itself. And sometimes, it’s not the person you might expect who should be tasked with delivering your organization’s message.

In response to a mechanical failure that led to a major environmental disaster in the U.S., opinion researchers were employed to learn more about the appropriate course of action they should take. Among the various findings, one stood out in particular: company spokespeople were not trusted. Rather, those who were polled showed a greater trust in the hard-hatted field workers that were employed by the company.

Accordingly, the company opted to include field workers at every media event, in addition to print and video advertisements, in response to the disaster. It also decided to step up field patrols to demonstrate a greater presence and show the public that they were taking an active role in preventing similar occurrences in the future. As a result, the company was able to foster a higher level of trust and engagement within the affected community.

Responding to the correct audience

In addition to identifying the right messenger, it is crucial to determine the correct target audience as well. In many cases, the affected stakeholders range far more broadly than what is immediately apparent, and can only be uncovered with adequate opinion research.

This is exemplified by the large U.S. West Coast farming company that was forced to recall several of its packaged vegetables after dozens of people got sick from an outbreak of a foodborne bacteria. After the incident, research found that, in addition to those directly affected by the foodborne bacteria, there were national implications for the brands associated with the company. Moreover, panic had spread throughout the local community surrounding its farming operations over a fear of job losses and the potential cross-contamination of other agribusinesses.

To assuage fears and show a redoubled commitment to the region’s economic recovery and food safety, the company decided to deploy company representatives and independent professionals with science backgrounds to community events and neighboring farming operations. As a result, a strong group of advocates from the local community have banded together to help in the future because they appreciated the company’s full-fledged response.

Communicating through the appropriate channels

After you have decided on the appropriate messenger and target audiences, you must also decide how to share your message to make sure it is received. Gauging public opinion through polls and focus groups can also help in this regard by showing which channels are most used by your audiences, and also where the most criticism is coming from.

In a financial scandal involving a medium-sized municipal government, an employee stole millions of dollars in taxpayer money. Regional and local media were relentless in their attacks on the government managers and elected officials for their handling of the situation. In response, the government employed the help of a pollster who found that a particular local newspaper and AM radio station were the go-to places for residents to get their news, and both outlets were hostile to the agency already reeling from the financial loss.

To mitigate the damage, the government agency brought in specialized communication consultants who already had established relationships with both the newspaper and radio station. Even though the bad employee was fired and was being prosecuted by the district attorney, the coverage from both news outlets continued to rail against the agency and their governing board for lack of oversight. However, by hiring the right PR team, the government agency gained access to a direct line of communication with the hostile media, and at least had a fair shot at responding to each charge.

Trust PR and crisis communication professionals to effectively fight fires with their skill and knowledge in the heat of a crisis. But when the business turns to bringing things back to normal—showing stakeholders and the public that you are fixing the problem or have a solution in the works—the only way to uncover the direction of public opinion is to do research.

 

Adam Probolsky is president of Probolsky Research, a women-owned, minority-owned, full-service market and opinion research firm working on behalf of corporate, election, government, labor, nonprofit and media clients. Probolsky wrote a weekly column for the Orange County Register for four years and volunteered for nearly eight years with the Orange County Sheriff’s Department as a spokesperson.

NRA Losing Ground Among Younger Members Who Support Banning Semi-automatic AR-15 Rifles

In the wake of the Parkland, Florida school attack last week, we launched a national poll to identify the sentiments of NRA members and those living in a household with an NRA member. The results suggest a shift among younger NRA members. While overall 57% of NRA members say they oppose banning AR-15 semi-automatic rifles, that number is just 38% among 18-24 year old’s in NRA households.

Combining support for the ban and those who are unsure in this age category totals 62%. While pro-gun American households are clearly against further controls on assault-style weapons, even in the face of seventeen deaths at the hand of a teen with this type of gun at a high school in Florida, there is a demographic shift coming.

These numbers suggest that the NRA is losing the battle among younger American gun owners and those living in member households.

Watch the media make celebrities out the student survivors of the Parkland attack. This trend will likely continue and make it harder to politicians to ignore their plea for change.

Some notes about methodology: We surveyed 3,192 U.S. adults in an online poll from February 14 -17, 2018. The overall margin of error is +/-1.8%. Among all respondents, 12% self-identified as NRA members or living in a household with an NRA member. We asked those 12% how they felt about banning the sale of assault-style weapons like the AR-15. We did not ask about making them illegal to possess – just about the sale of these guns.

Debut of our First National Public Listening Tool™ Among Voters: Watch and Listen

The Probolsky Research Public Listening Tool™ is unique in that it not only affords us the chance to hear how voters talk about a subject matter, but it also gives us the opportunity to learn how they relate to it.

In this episode, you can watch and listen to U.S. voters from across the country discuss President Trump’s proposed military parade in DC.

We clearly note each respondents political party, their position on the military parade, and where they live.

Just 25% of Americans Support a Military Parade in Washington DC

Our latest national online poll of adults shows most Americans are either opposed to, or unsure about, whether they support the President’s proposal to have a military parade in our nation’s capital. Just 25% say they support the parade.

We debut our first national Public Listening Tool™ research on this subject in this post. You can listen to real Americans explain their position on why they support or oppose the parade here.

 

One-third of Americans Say NO! to Political Consultants in the Family

Are political consultants so reviled that families will shun their children that choose the profession? It turns out yes, some will, but more would say, “congratulations.”

This week we feature the results of a new survey. We asked U.S. adults: “If your child or someone close to you became a , how would you react?”

Older Americans 65+ are most likely to congratulate their kinfolk upon becoming a political consultant. We didn’t ask why, but we suspect it’s because they are just happy they have a job.

So go ahead and join the ranks of the feast and famine class. Join with caution however, since there is a big risk of being shunned, but a better chance you will get a pat on the back, especially from grandma and grandpa.

On the bright side, a full 1/4 of Americans don’t know what a political consultant is, so you can tell them it is a kind of engineer, or psychologist.

This online survey of 1,024 U.S. adults was conducted from February 2-5, 2018 and has a margin of error of +/-3.2%.

U.S. and UK Give Trump Poor Ratings for Davos Performance

Our latest survey shows results among adults in the U.S. and the United Kingdom on President Trump’s performance at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week.

We ran dual UK and U.S. national polls to see how the numbers differed. As you can see, Trump gets higher ratings inside the U.S., but not by much.

U.S. Results:

UK Results:

 

The questions asked in each country were slightly different:

U.S Question: How would you rate President Donald Trump‘s performance at the Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting this week?

UK Question: How would you rate ‘s performance at the Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting this week?

This online survey of adults was conducted from January 25 – 29, 2018 (1,172 United States +/-2.9% Margin of Error, 1,304 United Kingdom +/-2.8 Margin of Error).

Probolsky Research is a U.S.-based market and opinion research firm.

These poll results are offered for public interest purposes and were not paid for or sponsored by any client.