Ballotpedia Insights Q&A with Adam Probolsky
You can watch Probolsky Research president, Adam Probolsky speak with Ballotpedia’s Director of Outreach in this 45 minutes webinar about polling and opinion research.
[Probolsky Research featured] Gavin Newsom reveals plan for California DMV. Why he warns of longer wait times
Gavin Newsom reveals plan for California DMV. Why he warns of longer wait times
July 23, 2019
by Bryan Anderson
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article233014987.html
Things could get worse before they get better at California’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a new report Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office released Tuesday.
As many as 28.2 million Californians could request a Real ID between March 2019 and October 2020, raising the possibility of long wait times for customers and a return to the hours-long delays seen last summer.
“The DMV is not out of the woods yet,” the report said. “Significant challenges remain between now and October of 2020, and these strains may continue to mean frustrating wait times for customers.”
Newsom called for the review of the DMV when he took office in January, recognizing that a host of technology and customer service problems had damaged Californians’ confidence in their government. An April poll from Probolsky Research found that nearly one in four California voters, including 39 percent of Republicans, thought the DMV was in such poor shape it could not be fixed.
California is Not Prepared for the Next Economic Downturn
In a new poll presented exclusively to the Sacramento Bee, Probolsky Research has found that most voters do not think California state government is prepared for the next recession.
More than 62% of voters say the state is not prepared, while just 19% think it is. A majority of every demographic and geographic group says the state is not prepared.
“It is rare that we find agreement across every group on an issue. A majority of voters of every party, ethnicity and location with in the state agree that California is not prepared for the next recession,” explains Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research. “The memory of the last recession just about ten years ago is fresh in the minds of voters. Many of them were teenagers and young adults at the time and saw the devastating impact it had on their families.”
The results of the poll can be viewed here:
Probolsky Research conducts market and opinion research and was not paid to conduct this poll. We present these results for public interest.
Low Turnout Could Sink Measure EE
Low Turnout Could Sink Measure EE
Key indicators suggest success is possible in a higher turnout scenario
UPDATE: Measure EE failed, pretty remarkably. Our research revealed something that does not normally happen in polling, but when it does, we do more discovery work to find out why. Watch Adam Probolsky explain:
Probolsky Research conducted a poll for public interest from May 16-17, among likely voters, about the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) and Measure EE on the June 4 Special Election ballot.
Measure EE aims to increase taxes by several thousand dollars on most property owners over a twelve-year period to fund local schools. Successful passage requires a two-thirds vote. “There is plenty of time for both sides to target their voters and encourage them to turnout. However, there are few undecided voters left to influence,” explained Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research, an independent, non-partisan polling firm based in California.
The poll tested the exact ballot language voters will see on their vote-by-mail ballot or in the polling booth. Our findings indicate a competitive campaign if turnout is relatively high for a Special Election in Los Angeles. The more likely scenario of a low turnout (about 8%) means the measure will likely fail to reach the 2/3 threshold needed.
Question: Measure EE is on the June 4th Special Election ballot in the Los Angeles Unified School District. Measure EE reads: “QUALITY TEACHER, CLASS SIZE REDUCTION, AND LOCAL SCHOOL SAFETY MEASURE. To retain/attract quality teachers, reduce class sizes, provide counseling/nursing/library services, arts, music, science, math, preschool, vocational/career education, safe/well-maintained schools, adequate instructional materials/supplies, support disadvantaged/homeless students, shall Los Angeles Unified School District levy $0.16 per square foot of building improvements annually, exempting seniors/certain disability recipients providing approximately $500,000,000 annually for 12 years, requiring annual audits, oversight, and funding local schools?” If an election were held today, would you vote yes, in favor of Measure EE, or vote no, against Measure EE?
_______________________________
“If Measure EE fails, it will be in part because voters, regardless of party, do not think that students receive a high-quality education in LAUSD schools,” said Probolsky. “The measure would raise some $6 billion, but it does not appear that voters believe these funds will be enough to make LA schools that much better.”
Voters don’t think students in LAUSD schools get a high-quality education
Question: Do you think students in Los Angeles Unified School District schools get a high-quality education?
_______________________________
As researchers we love presenting data in new and innovative ways, so we created the Public Listening Tool™ — a qualitative research technology. It provides a glimpse into the rationale for why voters within LAUSD are voting yes or no on Measure EE, in their own voice. The comments are transcribed and an overlay of political party and location are included to offer context.
“You will probably be surprised by what some Democratic voters say about why they oppose Measure EE,” said Probolsky. “Republican opposition is pretty stereotypical.”
Supporters of Measure EE are featured first, followed by those who oppose. You can listen and watch here:
Methodology:
From Thursday, May 16, 2019 to Friday, May 17, 2019, Probolsky Research conducted a multi-mode live-interviewer telephone and online survey among likely voters in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) June 2019 election.
A total of 400 voters (200 by telephone and 200 online) were surveyed. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-5%, with a confidence level of 95%. Interviews were conducted with respondents on both landline and mobile phones (31.5% completed the survey on mobile phones) and were offered in English and Spanish (11.5% completed the survey in Spanish) languages. For the online survey phase, we invited participation via email. Security measures precluded individuals from completing the survey more than once and allowed only the designated voter to complete the survey. Online respondents were able to use their computer, tablet or smart phone to participate.
Our sample was developed from the voter database maintained by the Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters. Probolsky Research applies a stratified random sampling methodology to ensure that the demographic proportions of survey respondents match the composition of our likely voter universe.
Probolsky Research is an independent, non-partisan market and opinion research company with corporate, election, government, non-profit and other special interest clients.
This research was conducted for public interest — we have no client in this campaign.
PR NEWS: What’s in Your Digital Go-Bag? Five Essentials for Communicators
Published in PR News 5/1/19
What’s in Your Digital Go-Bag? Five Essentials for Communicators
By Adam Probolsky
Technology will fail us all at some point. And if you are unprepared, it could exacerbate a situation and become a crisis.
Even a behemoth like Facebook goes down, as we saw last month. During an earlier worldwide outage of Facebook, Basecamp, the project- and team-management website and app, also went down. In such cases you’ll miss pics of the neighbor’s lunch. That’s manageable. But many businesses lost precious opportunities. For example, think of the advertising exposure lost when publishers couldn’t link to Facebook videos clients sponsored in their emails. The thousands of companies that rely on Basecamp lost access to every detail of their projects and the ability to communicate with teams.
This got me thinking: Am I ready for an extended outage of critical business systems? The answer was no.
Admittedly I’m a bit of a prepper in the zombie apocalypse sense. So, the axe and bottled water are stored safely with the family bug-out bag. But if the crisis is a major technology failure and not a global virus that takes control of unsuspecting bodies, I think most of us are unprepared.
So, I developed a digital go-bag. You might think I went overboard. Perhaps you want to swap out some geographic or industry-specific items for your go-bag. Fine. Consider the ideas below starting suggestions:
Back-up chargers for all your devices
Think about being without power for a couple of hours, let alone days. Forget about your computer, iPad and phone. A robust back-up power source that can power a handful of devices for a day costs about $100. Be sure to get one that has all the ports you need. For instance, Mac users will want a USB-C. Some even have a regular 120v plug.
Sat phone
The Weather Channel reporter standing in the middle of a hurricane is talking on a satellite phone. They are indispensable when cell service is interrupted because of weather or power outage. They’re also handy when there’s a coup on the island nation where you are vacationing and the military shuts all comms. Don’t forget to pre-program your key contacts for ease of use. Satellite phones are pricey. The Iridium Extreme 9575, has a rugged “military grade” design, costs $1,300, plus $50/month for service fees. And that’s before the cost of making or receiving calls.
Thumb drive with key files
Assuming the crisis you are facing does not include a foreign power detonating an EMP that destroys electronics for miles in every direction, you will have access to your computer. But the Internet might be down, so carry a thumb drive, or several that hold key files, like your crisis plan and templates for ever document you might need to produce. Also, stripped-down contact databases in Excel spreadsheets, old-school style. You may not be able to broadcast it to the world or forward to HQ, but at least you can write your media statement and update reports.
Printed contact lists and key documents
Many communicators operate in paperless offices. Printing things may no longer be in our nature. Still, having a contact list of the most critical people you need to be in touch with is important. Don’t forget to include fax numbers. Even if the Internet is spotty, the Panasonic fax machine at FedEx Office will still work. Also, put together a file with the most important pages you might need, like corporate governance documents, powers of attorney, holding statements and background material, such as org charts and timelines.
Back-up hard drive
Thumb drives can hold just about everything you need. But in case of an extended period without Internet connectivity, have a back-up of all your files. Some organizations have policies that restrict this kind of file downloading. If so, get special permission. And be sure to use encryption.
Adam Probolsky is president of Probolsky Research
Should Cities and Counties Face Punishment For Not Allowing New Housing?
Many parts of California are experiencing housing shortages and a serious lack of affordable housing. We queried California voters on whether cities and counties should face punishment for holding back on rezoning properties suitable for housing to allow for more densely populated development.
While we have seen pushback against new housing by residents in communities that have seen significant growth in recent years, a plurality of voters still say they support punishing local governments who stand in the way of new housing.
Probolsky Research conducted this poll and is releasing these results for public-interest purposes. We had no client, nor did we receive any compensation.
CA Voters: DMV like any other government bureaucracy
Sacramento Bee: “Today, nearly one in four California voters, including 39 percent of Republicans, think the DMV is in such poor shape it cannot be fixed, according to a Probolsky Research poll conducted last month.”
Read the article by Bryan Anderson here: https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article229967789.html#storylink=cpy
With so much reporting lately and what seems like the ever present public angst over the Department of Motor Vehicles, we decided to ask California voters how they really feel about the agency. It turns out that only about one-quarter of voters say the DMV is so bad there is no way to fix it. Looking at the results by demographic and geography, only Republican voters stand out with 39% saying it’s broken beyond repair.
Most voters think the DMV is like any other government bureaucracy.
Probolsky Research conducted this poll and is releasing these results for public-interest purposes. We had no client, nor did we receive any compensation.
Making Infrastructure Relatable
Originally published in PublicCEO – written by Adam Probolsky
If your kid came home with a D+ on her report card, you would start asking questions. How did things get this bad? Why didn’t we catch the problem sooner? And what’s the name of a good tutor?
Americans are in a similar predicament with our failing infrastructure. According to the latest report card from the American Society of Civil Engineers, the country’s infrastructure gets a D+. That’s a marginally passing grade for our bridges, dams, highways and water systems.
For decades, civil engineers have lamented the lack of public support for a real infrastructure fix. There’s no question that Americans want to drive on safe roads, access reliable water sources and keep the lights on. We want our country to thrive, and understand that it costs money to rebuild necessary systems. Why, then, has rebuilding America’s infrastructure languished?
To understand current attitudes toward infrastructure, you can to go back to the country’s last great big investment: President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway System. While today we think of highways as a necessity for trade and commerce, it wasn’t the only selling point. Part of the pitch for the National System of Interstate and Defense Highways was to ready the nation “in case of atomic attack on our key cities, the road net [would] permit quick evacuation of target areas.”
Highway advocates understood that framing transportation infrastructure in the context of the Cold War would increase the public’s intensity for the issue. It delivered a compelling narrative with a well-understood sense of urgency because it related to something on everyone’s mind.
In a similar fashion, there is a relatable message for supporting today’s infrastructure that should be tapped into, another layer of infrastructure we should all be concerned with but rarely talk about: software. A recent Bloomberg Businessweek article highlights the shocking age of software that many cities and regional government agencies rely upon for major systems like billing, emergency communications and transit. Some of us have a nostalgia for 1980s software like the DOS prompt or Commodore 64 commands. But no one would be comfortable with either as the backbone for police and fire radios or water treatment plants in 2019. That is essentially though the reality for far too governments in the U.S. today.
In a recent Probolsky Research survey, more than half (54%) of Americans say they support upgrading decades-old software that is running critical infrastructure, “even if it costs millions.” How could it be that the same Americans who are wholly weary of most government spending, would open public coffers to upgrade software that is still working? It’s worth noting that 31% of Americans said just that, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
Perhaps support for spending on software updates is rooted in the fact that they upgrade the software on their smart phones on what seems like a monthly basis. And when you turn on an iPhone from just a few years ago, you can see the dramatic difference in look and feel of the operating system, but more importantly, the difference in speed. Americans know that software powers our world. And innovations happen every day.
Policymakers should not be afraid to support spending money on infrastructure. And they should know that it will be easy to make the case for upgrading and maintaining the underlying software that runs critical government systems.
WATCH: New Yorkers Blame Elected Officials for Amazon Pulling Out of HQ2 Deal
In the wake of Amazon deciding to cancel plans to bring a new headquarters to New York in Long Island City, Probolsky Research conducted Field Focus Groups™ to gauge who New York residents blame for the deal falling apart. You can watch the video below.
Question: Who do you blame for Amazon canceling plans to bring their new headquarters to New York?
A majority, 55% say they blame elected officials.
Less than one-third, 31% say they blame Amazon.
And 14% say they don’t care.
New Yorkers have strong opinions about this subject, here are some key take-aways:
- Those who blame Amazon mention: greed, how they treat their workers and tax incentives
- Those who blame elected officials mention: loss of jobs, socialists and the immediate and long-term benefits of H2
Probolsky Research Field Focus Groups™ are used to gather firsthand responses from people impacted during crises or other significant events.
The video shows responses, first those who blame Amazon, then those who don’t care and finally those who blame elected officials. You can view the results here:
Probolsky Research is an independent, non-partisan market and opinion research company with corporate, election, government, non-profit and other special interest clients.
Probolsky Research is releasing these results for public interest purposes and was not compensated for, or urged to conduct the research, by any individual or organization.
We subscribe to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
