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DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters

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Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom wins over most California voters, but in a head-to-head match-up for president against Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor shows surprising strength among independents, Latinos and voters 40-49.[I]

A large majority (85%) of California Republican voters prefer DeSantis who also garners eleven percent of Democrats. Newsom gets 83% of Democratic voters and ten percent of GOP voters. But DeSantis bests Newsom in his own state among voters 40-49. DeSantis also earns strong support from Latino voters among whom the governors are tied. DeSantis’ sizable support among No Party Preference (independent) voters denies Newsom a majority among that group.

“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” explains Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

“To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024″, said Probolsky. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

[i] If the election for president were held today, for which candidate would you vote?

Adam Probolsky on Digital Politics podcast

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Listen to Adam Probolsky on the Digital Politics podcast talking about our recent Probolsky Research poll on the California Governor Recall Election.

Newsom Recall Poll

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We conducted a California Statewide voter survey on the potential Recall Election of Governor Gavin Newsom.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. We have no client in this Recall Election.

“The governor has higher favorables than unfavorables and the recall would fail if the election was today,” explained Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research on a virtual press conference. “We did find some worrying signs of weakness for Newsom, including sizable recall support from Latino voters.”

The video of the virtual press conference is below the results presentation.

Contact: Adam Probolsky – mobile 949-697-6726, adamp@probolskyresearch.com

Here is the video of our virtual press conference. Thank you to Scott Lay of The Nooner for joining us.