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New Yorkers Have a Long List of Demands

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From homelessness and affordable housing to fixing public transit, protecting subway riders, and improving education and public safety, Democratic Primary voters in New York have high expectations that are not being met.

The poll also finds that Mayor Adams has a narrow path to re-election and that Governor Cuomo would be an instant frontrunner should he decide to get into the race.

Call or text Dr. Adam Probolsky at (949) 697-6726 for comments or more information about the poll.

Methodology

From January 7 to January 13, 2025, Probolsky Research conducted a survey among likely 2025 New York City Democratic Primary Election voters. The sample was compiled from voter file data and matched to the demographics of likely voters. A stratified random sampling methodology was used to ensure accurate representation.

The survey was administered by phone (33%) and online (67%). Phone interviews were conducted via landline (32%) and mobile (68%), while online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%). Respondents could choose their preferred language: Cantonese (<1%), English (94%), or Spanish (6%).

The survey has a margin of error of +/-5% citywide and +/-5.8% for Manhattan oversample, CCD 28 oversample, and CCD 39 oversample, all with a 95% confidence level.

These results are being released for public interest only.

Probolsky Research is a nonpartisan Latina and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Many consumers see electric vehicles as a viable option

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We are at a pivotal moment for electric vehicle (EV) adoption – the data suggest consumers are warming to EVs. When 38% of consumers want something, it is not going away.

Call or text Adam Probolsky regarding this research – 949-697-6726.

Probolsky Research is a Latina- and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Veloz. 

Our results presentation can be viewed below.

Yes on CA Prop. 34 Shows Signs of Passing

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Probolsky Research conducted a statewide poll and asked likely voters how they would vote on Proposition 34 on the November General Election ballot. The ‘yes’ vote is winning but there are signs of weakness among certain demographic groups that the ‘no’ campaign might exploit. See memo below for details.

Contact Adam Probolsky at (949) 697-6726 for comments or more information about the poll.

Methodology

From July 31 to August 8, 2024, Probolsky Research conducted a poll among 900 likely 2024 General Election voters. The sample was drawn from voter files compiled by election officials across all 58 counties in California, using a stratified random sampling methodology to ensure it accurately reflects the demographic composition of likely 2024 General Election California voters. The poll was administered by phone (33%) and online (67%), yielding a margin of error of +/-3.3% with a 95% confidence level. 

We did not have a client associated with this research. It was conducted for public interest only.

Probolsky Research is a nonpartisan Latina and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Race for San Francisco Mayor Tied

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San Francisco uses ranked-choice voting. Ours is the only public poll that fully adheres to how the City’s Election Department counts the votes.

“Farrell’s strength this early in the election cycle is a very good sign for his campaign,” explained Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research. “While tied for the lead, Breed has limited upside potential — she needs to hold on to every vote she has. Farrell has room to grow his support base from voters who are currently choosing other challenger candidates.”

Contact Adam Probolsky at 949-697-6726 for comments or additional background.

This poll was funded by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association Political Action Committee.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan, Latina and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

San José Spotlight: Independent poll in Silicon Valley’s congressional race revealed

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Read the article here: https://sanjosespotlight.com/independent-poll-in-silicon-valleys-congressional-race-revealed/

Last week Adam Probolsky presented the results of a poll in California’s 16th Congressional District on the Texas Instruments campus in Santa Clara, CA. The poll was sponsored by local media outlet San José Spotlight which covers news, politics and business in Silicon Valley.

Schiff and Garvey Lead for U.S. Senate in California

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We know the candidate field is not set, but everyone wants to know who’s viable in the race for U.S. Senate in California. And the numbers show that Congressman Schiff and Congresswoman Porter both have a shot.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D) and businessman Steve Garvey (R) lead with about 21% of the vote for each of them. Even more voters (23%) are undecided.

“We don’t see a viable path for Rep. Barbara Lee,” said Adam Probolsky, the pollster who conducted the poll and president of Probolsky Research. “There is no chance that a Republican could win in the General Election, but for the moment, having a former Major League Baseball player in the mix looks promising for the GOP to have a chance at being on the ballot in November.”

This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters

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Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom wins over most California voters, but in a head-to-head match-up for president against Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor shows surprising strength among independents, Latinos and voters 40-49.[I]

A large majority (85%) of California Republican voters prefer DeSantis who also garners eleven percent of Democrats. Newsom gets 83% of Democratic voters and ten percent of GOP voters. But DeSantis bests Newsom in his own state among voters 40-49. DeSantis also earns strong support from Latino voters among whom the governors are tied. DeSantis’ sizable support among No Party Preference (independent) voters denies Newsom a majority among that group.

“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” explains Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

“To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024″, said Probolsky. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

[i] If the election for president were held today, for which candidate would you vote?

Very Few Want Biden to Run Again

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A sizable majority of California voters, across nearly every demographic, do not think President Biden should run for re-election.[i]

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Democratic voters are the only group that does not achieve a majority in thinking the President should not seek re-election. They do, however, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, say he shouldn’t – 26% of them are unsure.

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“The results among No Party Preference (independent) voters should be a clear indicator to President Biden’s political team that he is in jeopardy of being a one-term president,” shares Probolsky Research President Adam Probolsky. “Even members of the President’s party are conflicted as to whether he should seek re-election, more than a quarter are unsure and more Democratic voters say he should step aside than say he should run.”

“With numbers like these, and without a clear Democratic alternative to President Biden, the Republican hopefuls will get more and more attention as 2024 nears, explains Probolsky.” “The question is not whether President Biden will step aside and let the Democrats battle for the nomination but will he do it in time for them to be competitive.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode live interviewer telephone and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

[i] Do you think President Joe Biden should run for re-election?

Public Says Diverse Hiring Policies Are Important

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“The health and longevity of any brand is determined by its people. We have always known that a diverse workforce is important,” said Alton Smith, Equity Officer for Probolsky Research. “This poll should be a wake-up call to any organization that lacks a comprehensive plan to build a widely diverse team.”

Media contact: Adam Probolsky, Probolsky Research president – 949-697-6726 mobile

Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials.  We matched the demographics of California voters. 

Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).

A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.

Most Voters Say Inflation is Hard on Them

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Over 70% of voters say that inflation is making it hard for them to make ends meet. That number is bigger for Black and Latino respondents. Republicans say it’s hard on them, more so than Democrats.

“With more than two-thirds of Californians experiencing significant impacts from inflation, they are interested in hearing from anyone offering a solution,” said Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “There is no discounting the fact that people are hurting, but there is some evidence that media coverage of inflation is impacting public opinion about inflation.”

Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials.  We matched the demographics of California voters. 

Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).

A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.