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Newsweek Covers Probolsky Research Polling

What Polls Say About Newsom vs. DeSantis in Hypothetical 2024 Matchup

BY FATMA KHALED ON 9/17/22 AT 4:32 PM EDT

https://www.newsweek.com/what-polls-say-about-newsom-vs-desantis-hypothetical-2024-matchup-1743936

Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be more popular among independent and Latino voters than Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom if they ever decide to run in the 2024 presidential election, according to recent polls.

Speculation about DeSantis’ and Newsom’s 2024 presidential ambitions has grown in recent months. On Friday, Newsom took aim at DeSantis and challenged the GOP governor to a debate.

“Hey@GovRonDeSantis, clearly you’re struggling, distracted, and busy playing politics with people’s lives. Since you have only one overriding need — attention –let’s take this up & debate. I’ll bring my hair gel. You bring your hairspray. Name the time before Election Day.@CNN,” the California governor wrote on Twitter, further fueling speculation regarding his 2024 ambitions.

In a hypothetical matchup, DeSantis beats Newsom in California where 85 percent of the state’s Republican voters would choose the Florida governor, who is also taking the lead among independents, Latinos and voters who are between 40 to 49 years old, according to a poll released by Probolsky Research on August 19 that surveyed 900 likely California voters with a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” said Adam Probolsky, the Probolsky Research president. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

Though DeSantis and Newsom haven’t announced plans to run in 2024, they both appear to be positioning themselves for potentially taking part in the race. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have also hinted that they will run again in 2024.

The Probolsky Research poll also showed that DeSantis is also popular among independent voters, denying Newsom majority support among that group. “To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024,″ Probolsky added. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”

In a poll by Yahoo News that was conducted between June 24 and June 27, 1,630 respondents were asked whether they would vote for Newsom or DeSantis if the 2024 elections were held today.

A total of 39 percent of respondents said they would vote for Newsom, compared to 36 percent who would choose DeSantis. Still, the Florida governor is more popular among independent voters as 38 percent of them said they would vote for him in a hypothetical presidential race as opposed to 33 percent of independent voters who would vote for Newsom.

Favorability among state residents is also something accounted for when comparing the Republican and the Democratic governors’ chances in a hypothetical matchup.

Last month, a poll by the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed that 54 percent of Florida voters approve of DeSantis’ performance as governor, with 88 percent of Republicans and 52 percent of NPAs (No Party Affiliation) approving of his job. Additionally, 65 percent of Hispanic voters approve of his performance compared to 32 percent who disapprove. The poll was conducted among 608 respondents statewide with a margin error of 4 percent.

Meanwhile, a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released on August 23 showed that 53 percent of California voters approve of Newsom’s performance as governor, compared to 42 percent who disapprove. This is a slight improvement compared to the last poll released in February, asking voters about his job performance. The poll was conducted among 9,254 California registered voters with a sampling error of around 2 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to DeSantis’ office for comment.

WEBINAR: How to Use Opinion Research in Your Advocacy Efforts

We were proud to partner with Campaigns & Elections Advocacy Insider on this webinar. We had a great discussion on how to use polling and other opinion research in your lobbying efforts. You can click on the video below or find the video at this link: https://www.campaignsandelections.com/videos/how-to-use-research-to-optimize-advocacy-campaigns?fbclid=IwAR01qzVssympELChFxuoNzONE0frHT_xJHkjlBLk7U6b1cyYdX8k9e25zdo

Probolsky Research is a Latina and woman-owned non-partisan research firm, conducting polls, focus groups and other market and opinion research for corporate, election, government and non-profit clients.

 

4 Reasons Not to Pause Research During the Coronavirus Crisis

https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/4-reasons-not-to-pause-research-during-the-coronavirus-crisis

It’s easy to find excuses not to poll or conduct focus groups.

Whether it’s Super Bowl Sunday or the Thursday before President’s Day weekend, there’s always someone on the team who thinks the timing isn’t right to survey voters. While these opinions might have merit, there’s rarely a reason to wholesale pause consumer or voter research for any extended period of time.

Even in the face of this current national crisis, we’re polling and conducting online focus groups with success. In fact, with so many people at home looking for things to do, we’re seeing an uptick in respondents’ interest and enthusiasm.

From where we sit, here’s how polling looks during the coronavirus pandemic:

Campaigns and businesses need polling right now.

Organizations need to understand the nuances of this crisis and the proper way to communicate with each audience segment. Last month, a Pew Survey found differences in how Americans assessed coronavirus risks and changed behavior based on age, political party, and state of residence.

Even when stay-at-home orders are officially lifted, we’re likely to see lingering effects based on the intensity of these early initial attitudes. Polling is the only proven way to inform your changing tactics and develop tailored messages.

Voters are answering their mobile phones and survey questions online.

Our survey response rates are up since most Americans have been “safer at home.” Participation in online focus groups is through the roof. Americans are craving social interaction and the chance to share their opinions with someone other than their dog and the echo chamber of their social media feed. The image you might have conjured in your head of people cowering in fear in their bathtub isn’t real.

If you think lonely people eager to respond to your poll will bias the results, I can assure you that boredom and loneliness have always been major motivators for survey takers – in good times and crises alike.

People will talk politics during this crisis.

We are Americans. We have three 24/7 news channels mostly dedicated to talking about politics. People who live in Arizona subscribe to the New York Times and people who live in Florida subscribe to the Washington Post. We have even somehow created a hyper-political discussion around a prescription medication that might treat a virus. Trust me, people want to talk about politics.

We’re also seeing partisan differences in how people are responding to the crisis. For example, the Pew Survey found that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to feel comfortable visiting with a friend or going grocery shopping during the crisis.

Things are changing quickly, but winging it is never a good idea.

During the Democratic presidential primary, the campaigns didn’t stop polling when a competitor dropped out. They got right back into the field with another survey to figure out how to capture undecided voters.

Unfortunately, there’s also a real possibility that the coronavirus has fundamentally altered our way of life for the foreseeable future. The 1918 Spanish flu experienced three waves, with the second wave deadlier than the first. Absent a vaccine or cure, many Americans will be wary to rush out to ball games, or family reunions.

Political campaigns, industry and government agencies need to understand how to effectively communicate during this uncertainty. For associations or down-ballot campaigns with limited research budgets, the fundamental data from a poll will remain valuable for months. It’s better to obtain that critical data now and put it to work in a way that can help guide an organization through these uncertain times.

Adam Probolsky is president of Probolsky Research, a Latina- and woman-owned independent elections and public policy research firm.

Adam Probolsky on The Lobbying Show

Earlier this year Adam Probolsky was a guest on The Lobbying Show with Jim O’Brien. It’s a very insider podcast about the advocacy business. Jim is well connected and very smart. They had a great conversation about how polling and opinion research in general integrates into the advocacy process.

You can listen here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-deep-dive-into-the-polling-process/id1401504350?i=1000437938890

 

Ballotpedia Insights Q&A with Adam Probolsky

You can watch Probolsky Research president, Adam Probolsky speak with Ballotpedia’s Director of Outreach in this 45 minutes webinar about polling and opinion research.

 

[Probolsky Research featured] Gavin Newsom reveals plan for California DMV. Why he warns of longer wait times

Gavin Newsom reveals plan for California DMV. Why he warns of longer wait times

July 23, 2019

by Bryan Anderson

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article233014987.html

Things could get worse before they get better at California’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a new report Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office released Tuesday.

As many as 28.2 million Californians could request a Real ID between March 2019 and October 2020, raising the possibility of long wait times for customers and a return to the hours-long delays seen last summer.

“The DMV is not out of the woods yet,” the report said. “Significant challenges remain between now and October of 2020, and these strains may continue to mean frustrating wait times for customers.”

Newsom called for the review of the DMV when he took office in January, recognizing that a host of technology and customer service problems had damaged Californians’ confidence in their government. An April poll from Probolsky Research found that nearly one in four California voters, including 39 percent of Republicans, thought the DMV was in such poor shape it could not be fixed.

Should Cities and Counties Face Punishment For Not Allowing New Housing?

Many parts of California are experiencing housing shortages and a serious lack of affordable housing. We queried California voters on whether cities and counties should face punishment for holding back on rezoning properties suitable for housing to allow for more densely populated development.

While we have seen pushback against new housing by residents in communities that have seen significant growth in recent years, a plurality of voters still say they support punishing local governments who stand in the way of new housing.

 

Probolsky Research conducted this poll and is releasing these results for public-interest purposes. We had no client, nor did we receive any compensation.

CA Voters: DMV like any other government bureaucracy

Sacramento Bee: “Today, nearly one in four California voters, including 39 percent of Republicans, think the DMV is in such poor shape it cannot be fixed, according to a Probolsky Research poll conducted last month.”

Read the article by Bryan Anderson here: https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article229967789.html#storylink=cpy

With so much reporting lately and what seems like the ever present public angst over the Department of Motor Vehicles, we decided to ask California voters how they really feel about the agency. It turns out that only about one-quarter of voters say the DMV is so bad there is no way to fix it. Looking at the results by demographic and geography, only Republican voters stand out with 39% saying it’s broken beyond repair.

Most voters think the DMV is like any other government bureaucracy.

Probolsky Research conducted this poll and is releasing these results for public-interest purposes. We had no client, nor did we receive any compensation.