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Schiff and Garvey Lead for U.S. Senate in California

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We know the candidate field is not set, but everyone wants to know who’s viable in the race for U.S. Senate in California. And the numbers show that Congressman Schiff and Congresswoman Porter both have a shot.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D) and businessman Steve Garvey (R) lead with about 21% of the vote for each of them. Even more voters (23%) are undecided.

“We don’t see a viable path for Rep. Barbara Lee,” said Adam Probolsky, the pollster who conducted the poll and president of Probolsky Research. “There is no chance that a Republican could win in the General Election, but for the moment, having a former Major League Baseball player in the mix looks promising for the GOP to have a chance at being on the ballot in November.”

This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Candidate Age Perception Polling

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Our recent poll of California voters found a high level of concern over cognitive decline among presidential candidates and a desire to elect a U.S. Senator that is younger than 78 years old.

“We respect our parents, grandparents, and great grandparents, and the wisdom they bring to politics and public policy,” explained Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research. “We simply see the conversation happening about age and want to understand the motivations of the voters. Clearly they have strong feelings.”

When asked about concern over the age of candidates in the presidential election, there was a near 42% differential between Democratic and Republican voters. The willingness to elect an older U.S. Senator was higher among Democratic than Republican voters, but the differential between the two parties was significantly less at only 17%. This may speak to a Democratic voter instinct to defend President Joe Biden amidst the critiques of his age as he gears up for reelection.

This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Feinstein Leads de León in the CA U.S. Senate Race (General Election match-up)

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There is little doubt that incumbent U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein and CA State Senator Kevin de León will advance to the November General Election as the top two vote getters. With that in mind, we chose to look ahead to see how the race is shaping up so far.

In order to get the widest possible view of the race, we polled among all California voters and Feinstein leads across nearly all voting propensity breaks. de León takes a small lead among the small group of newer voters.

The biggest discovery from the poll is that Republicans, who generally know and dislike Feinstein, give de León their vote by a slim margin, in the absence of a Republican on the ballot.

Probolsky Research has no client in the 2018 CA U.S. Senate race and these questions were not paid for or sponsored by any third party. We are releasing this data for public-interest purposes only.

The presentation can be found here:

The full report with all cross tabulated results can be found here: